Explosive Threats and Effects Analysis
This is a staged process and applies to accidents as well as intentional attacks, terrorist or otherwise:
Unless threats are identified, evaluated and probabilities examined and their consequences there is a danger that:- some risks, perhaps the most critical, will not be identified and counter-measures will not be devised;
- counter-measures that are taken may lack focus;
- human, technological, and financial resources may not be used to maximum effect.
Threat Assessment and Risk Analysis –
Threat Assessment
The Critical Risk Assessment is the essential first step in the process of providing effective security and safety for any organisation.All the elements which could constitute a threat must be identified and evaluated – together with the degree of probability, the specific risks that could potentially occur, and their consequences.
Security and Safety Risks stem from the following threats:
- Political
- Terrorist
- Criminal
- Environmental
Risk Analysis
An analysis of the threats appropriate to your specific location, premises and environment needs to be undertaken. It is essential that threats are evaluated on their level of risk and probability of success of impacting the building, the business and its people.Often the most difficult to provide cost effective solutions for are those that are low risk but high impact such as a large vehicle bomb or a biological/ Chemical attack, as opposed to a theft of a wallet which is high risk but low impact.
Vulnerability Assessment
A detailed analysis of the present state of the building or complex in terms of:
- Structure
- Enclosure
- Internal Fit-out including services
- Security measures
Damage Predictions
Based on the threat and the state of the building and how it operates, we can accurately predict damage including human injury estimations.Predictions are based on a number of factors including:
- maths and physics–based military modelling
- trials and tests carried out by government institutions
- operational experience
- incident reports and subsequent analysis
- commercial-in-confidence criteria such as manufacturing detail, material specification
- Academic research, particularly on human injury
Protective Countermeasures
Protection (Mitigating) Options
A number of recommendations can be made to mitigate damage. In all but the most severe situations, there will be cost effective solutions which should not interfere with the normal function of the building. These can include:- anti-shatter film and frame anchoring
- steel blinds (for protection of key installations)
- upgraded glazing – by type and/or format or frame
- increased venting
- production of buffer zones
- blast walls
- blast reducing tiles or cladding
- procedures that incorporate barriers/planters/bollards etc.
Appendix: Bomb Shelter Measures
Under certain circumstances such as a vehicle bomb in the street, it may be unsafe for staff to remain at their normal place of work even well protected glazing can fail and cause serious injury.However evacuation may not be the safest option since shattered glass from surrounding buildings would be a serious hazard – the City of London bombs generated over 500 tons of shattered glass each!
Therefore a Bomb Shelter Area (BSA) or refuge area within the building may be safer.
Criteria
A modern glass-clad building may not appear to offer much opportunity for refuge, however what's needed is an area of comparative safety rather than an area of perfect safety; a better alternative than staying at one’s place of work or immediately evacuating from the building.Suitability
This Explosive Effects Analysis produces a very accurate picture of what will happen to a facility in a bomb incident. Levels of protection can be assessed and if necessary upgraded cost effectively. However protection is not the only factor that needs consideration:- Capacity - can all the staff fit into the area under Health & Safety guidelines?
- Amenities – are there toilets, water and lighting?
- Communication – what links exist, internally and externally ?
- Evacuation – can the area itself be evacuated, particularly if the building is damaged?
- Psychological aspects – is there a risk of claustrophobia or other limiting factors that could cause serious distress?
- Experience